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Cartagena 2–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2020 · Mon, Apr 5, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw35%2.80
Cartagena win34%2.89
Alcorcon win30%3.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena +053%1.83
Alcorcon +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under72%1.34
Over28%3.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽David Andújar · Cartagena
21'🟨José León · Alcorcon
30'🟨Fidel Escobar · Alcorcon
33'🟨David Andújar · Cartagena
34'⚽Cristian López · Cartagena
45'🟨Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon
49'⚽Óscar Arribas Pasero · Alcorcon
51'🟨Daniel Ojeda · Alcorcon
85'🟨Teddy · Cartagena
87'🟨Xisco · Alcorcon
88'🟨Samuel Sosa · Alcorcon
88'🟥Hugo Fraile · Alcorcon
90'🟨Kleandro Lleshi · Cartagena

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots11
4On target4
5Corners7
17Fouls17
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.550.50
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
coach days94.00155.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.07
dominance (last 5)0.480.43
elo1398.631438.30
elo momentum (last 5)-11.76-1.17
eye test v1-0.92-0.89
eye trend v10.080.11
first sub minute (last 10)62.2062.30
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.560.62
league points32.0034.00
league rank22.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0074.20
possession avg (last 5)44.8049.40
rest days3.906.00
scorer concentration0.380.13
season ppg0.941.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.607.40
skill v1-0.95-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.802.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
squad age30.2426.16
state index-0.63-0.63
sterile dominance v1-0.120.59
threat rate (last 10)0.190.17
threat rate (last 3)0.190.13
threat rate (last 5)0.190.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20