← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sabadell win | 38% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.90 |
| Castellon win | 29% | 3.24 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sabadell +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Castellon +0 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.56 |
| Over | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta |