← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Dec 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Iñaki Bikandi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 60% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| UD Logroñés win | 13% | 7.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| UD Logroñés −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand