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Las Palmas 2–1 UD Logroñés

← Segunda División 2020 · Sat, Oct 3, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win47%2.22
Draw32%3.10
UD Logroñés win22%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.2552%1.86
UD Logroñés −0.2548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Sergio Ruiz Alonso · Las Palmas
31'🟨Jon Errasti · UD Logroñés
53'⚽Rober González · Las Palmas
68'🟨Fabio González · Las Palmas
70'🟨Aythami Artiles · Las Palmas
90'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
90'⚽Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
90'⚽ (pen)Andy Rodríguez · UD Logroñés

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots7
3On target3
7Corners4
21Fouls19
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasUD Logroñés
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.46—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.510.43
cards avg (last 5)4.00—
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days582.001312.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.23—
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20—
corners against avg (last 5)3.80—
corners for avg (last 5)2.60—
corners volatility (last 10)1.32—
defensive leak (last 5)0.18—
dominance (last 5)0.50—
elo1489.091478.71
elo momentum (last 5)13.69—
eye test v10.10-0.80
eye trend v1-0.30—
first sub minute (last 10)55.90—
form points (last 5)6.00—
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60—
goals against avg (last 5)1.80—
goals for avg (last 5)2.40—
goals volatility (last 10)1.55—
h2 goals (last 10)1.00—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.57—
league points2.001.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2080.50
possession avg (last 5)48.8044.50
rest days7.197.09
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg0.670.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60—
shots for avg (last 5)10.00—
skill v1-0.33-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.90—
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.50
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.50
squad age24.9327.86
state index0.10-0.30
sterile dominance v10.090.13
threat rate (last 10)0.22—
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.20—