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Goztep 0–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2021 · Sun, May 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ü. Öztürk

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win62%1.55
Draw20%5.00
Goztep win18%5.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas +153%1.86
Goztep +147%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.49
Under34%2.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Valentin Rosier · Besiktas
19'🟨Valentin Rosier · Besiktas
19'🟥Valentin Rosier · Besiktas
25'🟨Murat Paluli · Goztep
27'⚽Cyle Larin · Besiktas
31'🟨Atakan Çankaya · Goztep
32'⚽Souza · Besiktas
37'🟥Souza · Besiktas
45'🟨Emre Bilgin · Besiktas
55'🟨Franco di Santo · Goztep
60'🟨Yalçın Kayan · Goztep
75'🟥Adis Jahović · Goztep
83'🟨Ege Özkayimoglu · Goztep
86'🟨Kerim Alıcı · Goztep
87'🟨Michy Batshuayi · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
18Shots8
7On target3
5Corners1
20Fouls10
6Yellow cards4
1Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)1.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı
coach days75.0075.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.17
dominance (last 5)0.470.61
elo1390.771607.00
elo momentum (last 5)-41.01-37.76
eye test v10.060.13
eye trend v10.21-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)55.4055.60
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.650.65
league points38.0062.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet19.004.00
matches since win15.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2051.00
rest days8.006.88
scorer concentration0.210.21
season ppg0.881.41
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.004.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.0013.20
skill v10.770.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age26.0023.48
state index-1.78-0.25
sterile dominance v10.37-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.001.00