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Alcorcon 1–0 Eibar

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, May 29, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Caparrós

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win63%1.53
Draw23%4.21
Alcorcon win13%7.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar +152%1.90
Alcorcon +148%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Fran Sol · Eibar
29'🟨Luis Valcarce · Alcorcon
35'🟨José Ángel Jurado · Alcorcon
35'🟨Frederico Venâncio · Eibar
63'🟨Chema · Eibar
86'🟨Miguel Atienza · Eibar
89'🟨Óscar Rivas · Alcorcon
90'⚽Giovanni Zarfino · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots19
2On target1
3Corners4
11Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.67
cards avg (last 5)3.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Santo Domingo
coach days270.00362.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.61
elo1387.001639.52
elo momentum (last 5)12.0116.95
eye test v1-0.350.75
eye trend v10.69-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)55.8044.70
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.750.72
league points30.0092.00
league rank24.002.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8075.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0048.20
rest days7.927.92
scorer concentration0.190.37
season ppg0.672.04
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.406.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0016.40
skill v1-0.14-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.606.20
squad age27.4930.22
state index-0.510.74
sterile dominance v10.02-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.260.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.40