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Almeria 1–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, May 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Raúl González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win74%1.32
Draw17%6.09
Alcorcon win9%12.24

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −1.552%1.85
Alcorcon −1.548%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.46

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Largie Ramazani · Almeria
45'🟨Samú Costa · Almeria
45'🟨Ivan Calero · Alcorcon
45'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Alcorcon
77'🟨Jesús Ruiz Suárez · Alcorcon
81'⚽Giovanni Zarfino · Alcorcon
82'🟨Giovanni Zarfino · Alcorcon
90'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
90'⚽Arnau Puigmal · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots10
3On target6
9Corners4
11Fouls9
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.53
cards avg (last 5)1.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
coach days415.00262.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)3.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)1.405.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.18
dominance (last 5)0.570.49
elo1663.211379.43
elo momentum (last 5)45.44-4.88
eye test v10.57-0.65
eye trend v10.130.18
first sub minute (last 10)60.7056.70
form points (last 5)15.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.51
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.830.72
league points91.0029.00
league rank2.0024.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6079.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2047.60
rest days8.046.33
scorer concentration0.310.19
season ppg2.070.66
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.00
skill v10.270.09
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.80
squad age26.6328.63
state index1.25-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.040.06
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00