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Las Palmas 2–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2021 · Fri, Apr 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win56%1.85
Draw26%4.00
Málaga CF win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.7555%1.79
Málaga CF −0.7545%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.94
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas
51'🟨Braian Cufré · Málaga CF
55'🟨Victor Gómez · Málaga CF
77'🟨Omenuke Mfulu · Las Palmas
79'⚽Jesé Rodríguez · Las Palmas
85'⚽Aleix Febas · Málaga CF
90'🟨Victor Gómez · Málaga CF
90'🟥Victor Gómez · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots7
5On target5
8Corners5
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.460.70
cards avg (last 5)2.404.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days118.0028.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1534.211411.46
elo momentum (last 5)36.886.79
eye test v10.93-0.34
eye trend v1-0.430.01
first sub minute (last 10)55.9052.60
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.660.64
league points62.0045.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)64.6047.20
rest days5.246.15
scorer concentration0.150.19
season ppg1.551.10
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0010.40
skill v11.510.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.20
squad age26.7626.46
state index0.40-0.39
sterile dominance v11.250.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20