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Alcorcon 1–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Mar 13, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Raúl González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win41%2.50
Draw30%3.20
Alcorcon win29%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +0.2551%1.93
Alcorcon +0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨David Timor · Huesca
40'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
42'🟨José Ángel Jurado · Alcorcon
61'🟨Pablo Insua · Huesca
71'⚽Borja Valle · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots11
4On target1
7Corners6
7Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.460.64
cards avg (last 5)1.803.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Santo Domingo
coach days193.00285.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.403.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.008.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.273.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.10
dominance (last 5)0.560.62
elo1326.381548.66
elo momentum (last 5)-9.386.07
eye test v1-0.170.65
eye trend v10.19-0.54
first sub minute (last 10)57.9059.90
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
keeper form v10.500.75
league points14.0042.00
league rank24.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win20.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)54.0051.40
rest days7.188.09
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg0.441.31
shot diff avg (last 5)2.806.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.2016.80
skill v10.270.06
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.40
squad age27.4329.54
state index-1.490.25
sterile dominance v10.08-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.280.34
threat rate (last 3)0.290.35
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00