← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Mar 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José López
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
| Alcorcon win | 21% | 4.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Lugo −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · Lugo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Chris Ramos · Lugo |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 339.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1485.45 | 1330.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.11 | -9.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | — |
| league points | 41.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 6.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.23 | 27.50 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |