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Ibiza 6–2 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francisco Hernández

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ibiza win51%1.99
Draw29%3.40
Alcorcon win20%5.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon −0.551%1.92
Ibiza −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.65

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Sergio Castel Martínez · Ibiza
24'⚽Xisco · Alcorcon
27'⚽Xisco · Alcorcon
45'⚽Miguel Cifuentes · Ibiza
52'⚽Cristian Herrera · Ibiza
56'⚽Juan Fernández · Ibiza
68'⚽Mateusz Bogusz · Ibiza
86'⚽Sergio Castel Martínez · Ibiza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
16Shots11
10On target5
2Corners2
19Fouls11
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIbizaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.670.58
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Can Misses – Power Electronic
coach days38.00129.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.05
corner diff avg (last 5)6.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)9.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.651.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1479.751347.72
elo momentum (last 5)-25.76-5.78
eye test v1-0.25-0.62
eye trend v10.770.35
first sub minute (last 10)62.0052.40
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
keeper form v10.650.63
league points31.0011.00
league rank13.0024.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win0.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2067.80
possession avg (last 5)59.0046.80
rest days5.794.79
scorer concentration0.190.14
season ppg1.290.46
shot diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.80
skill v10.60-1.09
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
state index-0.51-1.17
sterile dominance v10.52-0.62
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.330.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.20