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Oviedo 3–1 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Dec 5, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win57%1.68
Draw26%3.75
Alcorcon win17%5.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.7551%1.91
Alcorcon −0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.58
Over39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Dani Calvo · Oviedo
38'🟨Nicolás Gorosito · Alcorcon
47'⚽Gastón Brugman · Oviedo
65'⚽Borja Bastón · Oviedo
68'⚽Borja Bastón · Oviedo
81'🟨Laure · Alcorcon
90'⚽Raúl Asencio · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
8On target3
2Corners2
16Fouls16
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.720.53
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
coach days673.0095.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.531.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.22
dominance (last 5)0.420.59
elo1518.471354.52
elo momentum (last 5)4.75-10.69
eye test v1-0.61-0.45
eye trend v1-0.190.25
first sub minute (last 10)61.5049.90
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.15
keeper form v10.730.65
league points27.009.00
league rank12.0024.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.0010.00
matches since win1.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)45.8051.40
rest days8.898.89
scorer concentration0.330.15
season ppg1.350.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.0013.80
skill v1-0.35-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
squad age27.2030.50
state index0.02-1.10
sterile dominance v10.12-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.27
threat rate (last 5)0.200.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00