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Alcorcon 2–2 Amorebieta

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Nov 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win38%2.69
Draw32%3.10
Amorebieta win31%3.22

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon +054%1.79
Amorebieta +046%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.45
Over33%2.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Gaizka Larrazabal · Amorebieta
56'⚽Juan Hernández García · Alcorcon
63'🟨Iker Bilbao · Amorebieta
65'🟨Lucho Vega · Alcorcon
74'🟨Aitor Aldalur · Amorebieta
90'⚽Álvaro Peña · Amorebieta
90'⚽Marc Gual · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots4
5On target2
5Corners2
7Fouls16
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconAmorebieta
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.450.74
cards avg (last 5)3.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Santo Domingo
coach days67.001620.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.211.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.290.49
elo1358.811470.96
elo momentum (last 5)-31.376.87
eye test v1-1.13-0.77
eye trend v1-0.19-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)52.5054.10
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25—
keeper form v1—0.53
league points7.0013.00
league rank24.0023.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0058.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0041.60
rest days2.793.79
scorer concentration0.220.20
season ppg0.440.81
shot diff avg (last 5)-10.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.4011.60
skill v1-0.17-2.34
sot against avg (last 5)8.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.70
sot for avg (last 3)1.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.203.40
state index-1.45-0.25
sterile dominance v10.48-1.57
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.160.24
threat rate (last 5)0.160.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60