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Alcorcon 3–3 Leganes

← Segunda División 2021 · Wed, Oct 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win42%2.32
Draw33%2.90
Alcorcon win25%3.96

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes +0.2550%1.93
Alcorcon +0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under69%1.42
Over31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽ (pen)Juan Hernández García · Alcorcon
23'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Leganes
39'⚽Juanma Bravo · Alcorcon
42'⚽Javier Hernández · Leganes
43'🟨Lucho Vega · Alcorcon
46'🟨Bruno González · Leganes
54'🟨Víctor García · Alcorcon
59'🟨David Fornies · Alcorcon
64'⚽José Manuel Arnáiz · Leganes
69'🟨Sergi Palencia · Leganes
72'🟨Juanma Bravo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
8Shots22
5On target11
2Corners4
15Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Santo Domingo
· Alcorcon
77'⚽Hugo Fraile · Alcorcon
coach days49.00292.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1385.721511.52
elo momentum (last 5)-33.09-14.28
eye test v1-0.37-0.73
eye trend v10.120.01
first sub minute (last 10)58.7056.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.680.73
league points6.009.00
league rank24.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6054.60
rest days4.003.21
scorer concentration0.170.14
season ppg0.500.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.4011.00
skill v10.670.28
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.80
squad age27.5527.44
state index-1.08-0.32
sterile dominance v10.690.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80