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Fenerbahce 3–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Thu, May 18, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Bitigen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win66%1.45
Draw21%4.81
Trabzonspor win13%7.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −1.2552%1.90
Trabzonspor −1.2548%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.53
Under38%2.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
58'⚽Luan Peres · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Eren Elmalı · Trabzonspor
71'⚽Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
80'⚽ (pen)Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Hüseyin Türkmen · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots9
9On target6
9Corners3
10Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days351.0047.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.200.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.821.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.10
dominance (last 5)0.630.47
elo1777.801605.63
elo momentum (last 5)10.04-33.84
eye test v10.89-0.50
eye trend v1-0.08-0.46
first sub minute (last 10)45.3048.30
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.62
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.580.72
league points84.0056.00
league rank1.009.00
matches since blank10.003.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8081.60
possession avg (last 5)64.4049.20
rest days11.0410.00
scorer concentration0.250.15
season ppg2.211.47
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.409.80
skill v11.660.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.00
squad age25.9927.41
state index0.95-0.25
sterile dominance v11.000.50
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60