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Fenerbahce 1–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2022 · Mon, Nov 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Göçek

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win71%1.34
Draw18%5.53
Sivasspor win11%9.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −1.550%1.95
Fenerbahce −1.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.52

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Sivasspor
25'🟨Miguel Crespo · Fenerbahce
35'🟨Kader Keïta · Sivasspor
40'🟨Emre Mor · Fenerbahce
45'🟨Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
48'🟨Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
48'🟥Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
55'⚽ (pen)Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
60'🟨Robin Yalçın · Sivasspor
69'🟨Caner Osmanpaşa · Sivasspor
75'🟨Miha Zajc · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
89'🟨Dia Saba · Sivasspor
90'🟨Altay Bayındır · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
3On target3
2Corners3
18Fouls23
7Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.660.49
cards avg (last 5)0.400.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days159.001255.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.903.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.17
dominance (last 5)0.670.53
elo1820.681562.55
elo momentum (last 5)23.657.45
eye test v10.42-0.41
eye trend v1-0.34-0.80
first sub minute (last 10)67.5052.00
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.651.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.650.30
keeper form v10.680.80
league points35.0013.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)57.4048.00
rest days3.883.97
scorer concentration0.240.38
season ppg2.500.93
shot diff avg (last 5)6.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4014.00
skill v10.99-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)1.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age26.0631.31
state index1.220.15
sterile dominance v10.840.05
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00