← Süper Lig 2022 · Sun, Oct 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 69% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.25 |
| Karagumruk win | 13% | 8.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce −1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Karagumruk −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |