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Huesca 1–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2022 · Sun, Feb 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win38%2.56
Draw33%3.00
Huesca win29%3.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +0.2554%1.79
Granada +0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.48
Over35%2.76

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Miguel Rubio · Granada
24'🟨Pol Lozano · Granada
43'⚽Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca
45'⚽Carlos Neva · Granada
48'🟨Jérémy Blasco · Huesca
58'🟨Óscar Melendo · Granada
80'🟨Oscar Sielva · Huesca
90'🟨Florian Miguel · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
7Shots8
4On target2
4Corners4
13Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuescaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.640.56
cards avg (last 5)3.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Alcoraz
coach days233.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.22
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.40-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.201.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.472.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.05
dominance (last 5)0.350.39
elo1516.311637.41
elo momentum (last 5)1.9247.09
eye test v1-1.33-0.09
eye trend v10.12-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)61.0050.20
form points (last 5)6.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.780.89
league points40.0056.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.6076.60
possession avg (last 5)37.0049.40
rest days6.818.71
scorer concentration0.120.44
season ppg1.331.87
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.60-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.008.60
skill v1-1.63-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.204.80
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.00
squad age27.1128.41
state index-0.130.82
sterile dominance v1-0.580.46
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40