⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Trabzonspor 2–3 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2023 · Sun, Mar 17, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win47%2.03
Trabzonspor win28%3.73
Draw25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.552%1.88
Fenerbahce +0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
13'⚽Fred · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Fred · Fenerbahce
52'🟨Enis Destan · Trabzonspor
63'⚽Enis Bardhi · Trabzonspor
70'🟨Stefano Denswil · Trabzonspor
75'🟨Alexander Djiku · Fenerbahce
76'🟨Eren Elmalı · Trabzonspor
78'🟨Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
78'⚽ (pen)Mahmoud Trézéguet · Trabzonspor
82'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
7Shots7
3On target5
10Corners2
13Fouls18
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.620.75
cards avg (last 5)0.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
Bright Osayi-Samuel
· Fenerbahce
87'⚽Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Umut Bozok · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce
coach days168.00655.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.18
dominance (last 5)0.680.70
elo1612.411863.82
elo momentum (last 5)24.3714.98
eye test v11.570.30
eye trend v10.47-0.74
first sub minute (last 10)60.3055.70
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.640.81
league points56.0090.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)59.2056.20
rest days8.062.99
scorer concentration0.200.27
season ppg1.562.57
shot diff avg (last 5)11.409.80
shots for avg (last 5)20.8017.20
skill v11.130.91
solidity v10.971.30
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.705.80
sot for avg (last 3)8.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.804.20
squad age27.5727.23
state index0.971.45
sterile dominance v1-0.080.49
threat rate (last 10)0.310.30
threat rate (last 3)0.390.22
threat rate (last 5)0.350.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.403.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.080.89
xg for avg (last 5)1.802.11