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Kayserispor 3–4 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2023 · Wed, Dec 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win61%1.58
Draw23%4.48
Kayserispor win17%5.73

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +150%1.93
Fenerbahce +150%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.70
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Cengiz Ünder · Fenerbahce
36'🟨Ali Karimi · Kayserispor
40'⚽Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Olivier Kemen · Kayserispor
50'⚽Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
56'⚽ (pen)Mame Thiam · Kayserispor
57'🟨Alexander Djiku · Fenerbahce
73'⚽Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
79'⚽ (pen)Michy Batshuayi · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Jayden Oosterwolde · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Majid Hosseini · Kayserispor
90'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Fred · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
90'🟥Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce
90'🟥Fred · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots13
6On target6
5Corners3
22Fouls11
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.72
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
coach days110.00567.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.002.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.852.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.19
dominance (last 5)0.470.66
elo1596.171823.15
elo momentum (last 5)36.25-4.34
eye test v10.011.19
eye trend v10.160.23
first sub minute (last 10)57.2063.00
form points (last 5)11.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.85
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.60
keeper form v10.790.83
league points35.0047.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank9.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0083.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2056.40
rest days10.045.84
scorer concentration0.500.38
season ppg1.842.61
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.807.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.00
skill v10.221.37
solidity v10.17-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.706.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.008.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.20
squad age30.6127.58
state index0.710.83
sterile dominance v10.580.57
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.251.25
xg for avg (last 5)1.122.42