⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Levante UD 2–2 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, May 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win50%1.95
Alcorcon win25%3.90
Draw25%3.96

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon −0.550%1.94
Levante UD −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.85
Under47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

55'🟨Pablo Martínez · Levante UD
60'⚽Andrés García · Levante UD
65'⚽Carlos Espí · Levante UD
67'🟨Álex Muñoz · Levante UD
79'⚽Víctor García · Alcorcon
89'🟨Javier Lara · Alcorcon
90'🟨Carlos Espí · Levante UD
90'⚽Dyego Sousa · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots20
4On target6
12Corners6
10Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.500.47
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ciudad de Valencia
coach days115.00998.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.791.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1591.291425.44
elo momentum (last 5)9.72-18.36
eye test v10.06-0.05
eye trend v10.140.03
first sub minute (last 10)61.0052.50
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.850.82
league points65.0047.00
league rank9.0021.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4070.80
possession avg (last 5)55.2043.00
rest days7.907.09
scorer concentration0.180.18
season ppg1.481.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.4013.20
skill v10.91-0.97
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age25.2027.45
state index0.38-0.69
sterile dominance v10.52-1.25
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60