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Eibar 2–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: José Guzmán

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win67%1.43
Draw22%4.38
Alcorcon win10%9.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon −1.2553%1.84
Eibar −1.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.73
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Víctor García · Alcorcon
45'🟨Iago López Carracedo · Alcorcon
45'⚽Jon Bautista · Eibar
54'🟨Christian Borrego · Alcorcon
54'🟨Iago López Carracedo · Alcorcon
54'🟥Iago López Carracedo · Alcorcon
66'🟨Javier Pérez Mateo · Alcorcon
71'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Eibar
89'⚽ (pen)José Corpas · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots14
5On target3
5Corners5
14Fouls11
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.550.48
cards avg (last 5)1.803.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days295.00963.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.961.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.04
dominance (last 5)0.510.43
elo1590.661443.81
elo momentum (last 5)11.4442.96
eye test v10.59-0.26
eye trend v10.130.09
first sub minute (last 10)55.3061.00
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.10
keeper form v10.680.77
league points62.0045.00
league rank5.0018.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8040.20
rest days7.005.82
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg1.631.15
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.409.80
skill v10.61-1.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
squad age27.8426.94
state index0.500.10
sterile dominance v10.47-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60