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Besiktas 1–1 Samsunspor

← Süper Lig 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win49%1.98
Draw27%3.59
Samsunspor win25%3.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor −0.551%1.92
Besiktas −0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.70
Under44%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Carlo Holse · Samsunspor
57'⚽ (pen)Cengiz Ünder · Besiktas
64'🟨Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas
66'⚽Cherif Ndiaye · Samsunspor
81'🟨Toni Borevković · Samsunspor
90'🟨Gabriel Paulista · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots14
2On target6
4Corners3
10Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasSamsunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.710.68
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTupras Stadium
coach days326.00114.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-7.002.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)1.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.05
dominance (last 5)0.510.63
elo1621.001623.47
elo momentum (last 5)16.9433.06
eye test v10.271.16
eye trend v1-0.200.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.8061.70
form points (last 5)8.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.40
keeper form v10.750.76
league points25.0024.00
league rank7.008.00
matches since blank10.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2081.40
possession avg (last 5)48.8051.40
rest days14.8813.88
scorer concentration0.260.36
season ppg1.671.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4016.00
skill v10.300.95
solidity v10.501.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.406.00
squad age29.58—
state index0.511.08
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.270.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.960.70
xg for avg (last 5)1.772.37