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Boulogne 2–6 Reims

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win49%1.90
Draw27%3.40
Boulogne win24%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims +0.550%1.90
Boulogne +0.550%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.67
Over44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Hiroki Sekine · Reims
10'⚽Aurelien Platret · Boulogne
18'⚽Hafiz Umar Ibrahim · Reims
19'🟨Julien Boyer · Boulogne
27'⚽ (pen)Keito Nakamura · Reims
32'⚽Teddy Teuma · Reims
34'⚽Julien Boyer · Boulogne
43'⚽Keito Nakamura · Reims
47'⚽Hafiz Umar Ibrahim · Reims
52'🟨Aurelien Platret · Boulogne
90'⚽Thiemoko Diarra · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score4
10Shots15
2On target7
1Corners3
16Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoulogneReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.580.69
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Libération
coach days1000.00119.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.604.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.802.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.19
dominance (last 5)0.600.55
elo1383.241538.30
elo momentum (last 5)14.30-23.12
eye test v10.390.33
eye trend v1-0.070.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.9057.00
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.69—
league points10.0017.00
league rank17.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8084.20
possession avg (last 5)43.6057.20
rest days4.064.06
scorer concentration0.170.20
season ppg0.911.42
shot diff avg (last 5)6.002.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.40
skill v1-0.391.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
squad age—25.22
state index-0.25-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.810.63
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00