← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 37% | 2.68 |
| Boulogne win | 34% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Guingamp +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Boulogne +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Dylan Ourega · Guingamp |
| 34' | 🟨 | Nolan Binet · Boulogne |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp |
| 52' | 🟨 | Julien Boyer · Boulogne |
| 66' | ⚽ | Louis Mafouta · Guingamp |
| 69' | ⚽ | Corentin Fatou · Boulogne |
| 80' | ⚽ | Noah Fatar · Boulogne |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adrien Pinot · Boulogne |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luka Boiteau · Boulogne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boulogne | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Libération |
| coach days | 989.00 | 534.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1390.41 | 1476.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.70 | 3.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.81 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |