← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Eddy Rosier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.87 |
| Boulogne win | 17% | 6.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boulogne −1 | 55% | 1.77 |
| Montpellier −1 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over | 44% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟥 | Julien Laporte · Montpellier |
| 43' | 🟨 | Julien Boyer · Boulogne |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Christopher Jullien · Boulogne |
| 57' | 🟨 | Nolan Binet · Boulogne |
| 69' | ⚽ | Amine El Farissi · Boulogne |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Corentin Fatou · Boulogne |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adrien Pinot · Boulogne |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 175.00 | 965.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1444.16 | 1368.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.83 | -33.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.82 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.27 | 4.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.13 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.25 | — |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |