← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Tue, Sep 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Kubler
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 43% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
| Boulogne win | 26% | 3.81 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Boulogne +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.49 |
| Over | 36% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Gabin Capuano · Boulogne |
| 19' | 🟨 | Loïc Etoga · Bastia |
| 41' | 🟨 | Louis Siliadin · Boulogne |
| 41' | 🟨 | Issiaka Karamoko · Bastia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sonny Duflos · Boulogne |
| 82' | ⚽ | Exauce Mpembele Boula · Boulogne |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maxime Blé · Bastia |
| 87' | 🟨 | Juan Guevara · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boulogne | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Libération |
| coach days | 958.00 | 472.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1378.70 | 1443.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.55 | -26.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.17 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |