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Boulogne 0–1 AS Saint-Étienne

← Ligue 2 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne win55%1.73
Draw26%3.83
Boulogne win19%4.93

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AS Saint-Étienne +0.7551%1.95
Boulogne +0.7549%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.96
Over49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Zanga Koné · Boulogne
26'🟨Nathan Zohoré · Boulogne
42'🟨Demba Thiam · Boulogne
45'🟨Lucas Stassin · AS Saint-Étienne
74'⚽Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne
79'🟨Ebenezer Annan · AS Saint-Étienne
85'🟨Sonny Duflos · Boulogne
90'🟨Exauce Mpembele Boula · Boulogne
90'🟨João Ferreira · AS Saint-Étienne

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots11
0On target3
3Corners5
14Fouls12
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoulogneAS Saint-Étienne
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.420.66
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Libération
coach days934.0022.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.901.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.490.52
elo1402.301552.32
elo momentum (last 5)-17.6615.64
eye test v1-0.360.87
eye trend v1—0.14
first sub minute (last 10)67.3357.30
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6786.60
possession avg (last 5)48.3356.40
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg0.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.40
skill v10.091.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)—5.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.675.80
state index-0.550.30
sterile dominance v10.390.64
threat rate (last 10)—0.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40