← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Schwengers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 49% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
| Preußen Münster win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Darmstadt −0.5 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Yassine Bouchama · Preußen Münster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hiroki Akiyama · Darmstadt |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Bolay · Preußen Münster |
| 56' | ⚽ | Killian Corredor · Darmstadt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marco Richter · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Preußen Münster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor |
| coach days | 469.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1506.19 | 1450.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.80 | 11.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.75 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | 0.23 |
| solidity v1 | -0.12 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 1.44 |