⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Preußen Münster 2–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Michael Bacher, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win54%1.75
Draw24%3.90
Preußen Münster win22%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover +0.554%1.75
Preußen Münster +0.546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Virgil Ghiță · Hannover
35'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
41'⚽Benjamin Källman · Hannover
48'🟨Oscar Vilhelmsson · Preußen Münster
69'🟨Oliver Batista Meier · Preußen Münster
73'⚽Daisuke Yokota · Hannover
90'🟨Morten Behrens · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Daisuke Yokota · Hannover
90'🟨Boris Tomiak · Hannover
90'⚽ (pen)Oliver Batista Meier · Preußen Münster
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots5
4On target2
5Corners2
13Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.590.61
cards avg (last 5)4.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreussenstadion
⚽
Zidan Sertdemir · Preußen Münster
coach days248.00248.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.281.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.07
dominance (last 5)0.440.58
elo1450.391521.72
elo momentum (last 5)-3.7129.64
eye test v1-0.271.50
eye trend v1-0.140.53
first sub minute (last 10)47.1048.50
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v1—0.69
league points18.0028.00
league rank13.003.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6086.20
possession avg (last 5)53.2055.80
rest days5.217.00
scorer concentration0.190.35
season ppg1.291.87
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.205.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.2017.40
skill v10.011.03
solidity v10.13-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.678.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.008.00
state index-0.200.53
sterile dominance v10.640.15
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.35
threat rate (last 5)0.200.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.481.24
xg for avg (last 5)0.981.72