⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bielefeld 1–2 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Marc Philip Eckermann, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win56%1.67
Draw23%4.00
Preußen Münster win21%4.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.7551%1.85
Preußen Münster −0.7549%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.70
Under45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (pen)Joel Grodowski · Bielefeld
28'🟨Monju Momuluh · Bielefeld
29'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
32'⚽Oliver Batista Meier · Preußen Münster
41'🟨Mikkel Kirkeskov · Preußen Münster
45'🟨Marcel Benger · Preußen Münster
45'🟨Jannis Heuer · Preußen Münster
55'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
69'🟨Stefano Russo · Bielefeld
75'🟨Noah Joel Sarenren Bazee · Bielefeld
89'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots12
2On target6
13Corners2
16Fouls18
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.58
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchücoArena
⚽ (og)
Leon Schneider · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Yassine Bouchama · Preußen Münster
3.40
coach days883.00243.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.342.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1438.771438.68
elo momentum (last 5)50.92-20.35
eye test v1-0.09-0.49
eye trend v10.12-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)56.7048.80
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.650.67
league points20.0015.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2081.20
possession avg (last 5)42.8056.00
rest days7.008.02
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.431.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.2010.20
skill v1-0.120.19
solidity v1-0.41-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.40
state index0.41-0.55
sterile dominance v1-1.050.93
threat rate (last 10)0.280.20
threat rate (last 3)0.340.20
threat rate (last 5)0.330.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.621.35
xg for avg (last 5)1.730.90