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Greuther Furth 1–0 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Nov 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gansloweit, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster win37%2.55
Greuther Furth win35%2.70
Draw28%3.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster +051%1.85
Greuther Furth +049%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.67
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Pelle Boevink · Greuther Furth
22'🟨Yassine Bouchama · Preußen Münster
52'🟨Mikkel Kirkeskov · Preußen Münster
57'🟨Luca Bolay · Preußen Münster
77'🟨Torge Paetow · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Mathias Olesen · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Jannik Dehm · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots12
2On target3
4Corners7
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.540.58
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
3.40
coach days190.00220.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.11
dominance (last 5)0.450.46
elo1362.021449.39
elo momentum (last 5)-32.50-9.59
eye test v10.25-0.02
eye trend v10.11-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)64.0048.90
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)4.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.85
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1—0.67
league points10.0014.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet20.0012.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8082.80
possession avg (last 5)47.6057.20
rest days5.217.00
scorer concentration0.350.20
season ppg0.831.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.8012.40
skill v10.020.46
solidity v1-1.88-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)7.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
state index-1.55-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.270.79
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.671.67
xg for avg (last 5)1.451.07