← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Jarno Wienefeld, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 43% | 2.20 |
| Preußen Münster win | 29% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Preußen Münster +0.25 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Timon Weiner · Holstein Kiel |
| 10' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster |
| 18' | ⚽ | Adrián Kaprálik · Holstein Kiel |
| 31' | 🟨 | Zidan Sertdemir · Preußen Münster |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jannis Heuer · Preußen Münster |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver Batista Meier · Preußen Münster |
| 72' | 🟨 | Louis Köster · Holstein Kiel |
| 73' | 🟨 | Torge Paetow · Preußen Münster |
| 77' | ⚽ | Yassine Bouchama · Preußen Münster |
| 90' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preußen Münster | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Preussenstadion |
| 🟨 |
| Johannes Schenk · Preußen Münster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Komenda · Holstein Kiel |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 213.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1439.30 | 1502.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.88 | -20.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.27 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.17 |