← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Tom Bauer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster win | 41% | 2.39 |
| Dresden win | 34% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.78 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Preußen Münster −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Jakob Lemmer · Dresden |
| 13' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster |
| 20' | 🟨 | Lars Bünning · Dresden |
| 23' | ⚽ | Alexander Rossipal · Dresden |
| 51' | ⚽ | Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster |
| 70' | ⚽ | Lars Bünning · Dresden |
| 72' | 🟨 | Paul Jaeckel · Preußen Münster |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kofi Jeremy Amoako · Dresden |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Lars Bünning · Preußen Münster |
| 90' | 🟥 | Stefan Kutschke · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preußen Münster | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Preussenstadion |
| coach days | 200.00 | 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1459.03 | 1331.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.75 | 6.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.68 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |