← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Lukas Benen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Preußen Münster win | 26% | 3.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hertha −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.78 |
| Under | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sebastian Grønning · Hertha |
| 52' | ⚽ | Sebastian Grønning · Hertha |
| 53' | 🟨 | Sebastian Grønning · Hertha |
| 62' | 🟨 | Paul Jaeckel · Preußen Münster |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson · Hertha |
| 84' | ⚽ | Etienne Amenyido · Preußen Münster |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tjark Ernst · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johannes Schenk · Preußen Münster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Preußen Münster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 245.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1444.55 | 1467.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.18 | 2.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.08 | — |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |