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Preußen Münster 3–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Richard Hempel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster win45%2.19
Draw28%3.42
Braunschweig win27%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster −0.2552%1.88
Braunschweig −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.93
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Oscar Vilhelmsson · Preußen Münster
35'🟨Florian Flick · Braunschweig
36'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
47'⚽Etienne Amenyido · Preußen Münster
58'⚽Oliver Batista Meier · Preußen Münster
69'⚽Erencan Yardımcı · Braunschweig
72'🟨Louis Breunig · Braunschweig
79'🟨Charalambos Makridis · Preußen Münster
81'🟨Leon Bell Bell · Braunschweig
82'🟨Sven Köhler · Braunschweig
89'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
4On target5
3Corners9
16Fouls16
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreussenstadion
🟨
Etienne Amenyido · Preußen Münster
3.20
coach days180.0058.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.461.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.16
dominance (last 5)0.460.41
elo1458.981371.70
elo momentum (last 5)-5.92-41.68
eye test v10.32-0.54
eye trend v1-0.220.01
first sub minute (last 10)47.0051.50
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.700.64
league points7.007.00
league rank14.0015.00
matches since blank12.004.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.2076.40
possession avg (last 5)60.4042.40
rest days8.798.02
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg1.171.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.809.80
skill v11.54-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
state index-0.33-1.25
sterile dominance v11.37-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20