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Kaiserslautern 4–1 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Schwengers, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win47%2.13
Draw27%3.52
Preußen Münster win26%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster −0.553%1.88
Kaiserslautern −0.547%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.86
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern
9'🟨Luca Bolay · Preußen Münster
17'⚽Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern
24'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern
30'🟨Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster
43'🟨Naatan Skyttä · Kaiserslautern
45'🟨Marvin Schulz · Preußen Münster
50'⚽Oscar Vilhelmsson · Preußen Münster
55'🟨Maxwell Gyamfi · Kaiserslautern
64'⚽Ivan Prtajin · Kaiserslautern
66'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
15Shots14
6On target6
4Corners0
19Fouls12
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.63
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz Walter Stadion
🟨
Fabian Kunze · Kaiserslautern
90'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
2.60
coach days171.00171.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.19
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.693.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1479.511473.18
elo momentum (last 5)25.480.87
eye test v1-0.250.08
eye trend v10.23-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)56.4048.60
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.730.76
league points9.007.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank5.0011.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2088.20
possession avg (last 5)49.6061.00
rest days5.215.21
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg1.501.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.20
skill v1-0.241.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index0.43-0.18
sterile dominance v1-0.151.53
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40