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Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Florian Lechner, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster win39%2.49
Fortuna Dusseldorf win32%3.02
Draw29%3.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster +054%1.76
Fortuna Dusseldorf +046%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.88
Over49%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Simon Scherder · Preußen Münster
30'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Preußen Münster
33'🟨Kenneth Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf
64'⚽Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf
65'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
69'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
72'⚽ (pen)Florent Muslija · Fortuna Dusseldorf
85'🟨Christian Rasmussen · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
21Shots10
6On target2
8Corners2
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)3.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreussenstadion
3.40
coach days166.001321.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.292.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.48
elo1484.761489.46
elo momentum (last 5)12.59-43.25
eye test v10.11-0.36
eye trend v1-0.29-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)47.7056.90
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.61
league points7.004.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.4083.80
possession avg (last 5)53.8048.20
rest days15.0214.71
scorer concentration0.29—
season ppg1.751.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.80
skill v10.960.46
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
state index0.06-0.66
sterile dominance v10.990.17
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.150.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00