← 2. Bundesliga 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Florian Lechner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster win | 39% | 2.49 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 32% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster +0 | 54% | 1.76 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Simon Scherder · Preußen Münster |
| 30' | 🟨 | Paul Jaeckel · Preußen Münster |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kenneth Schmidt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cédric Itten · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Florent Muslija · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 85' | 🟨 | Christian Rasmussen · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preußen Münster | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Preussenstadion |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 166.00 | 1321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1484.76 | 1489.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.59 | -43.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 15.02 | 14.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |