← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Burda
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 70% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.75 |
| Ulm win | 14% | 7.71 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV −1.5 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.33 |
| Under | 28% | 3.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Tom Gaal · Ulm |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 35' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 40' | 🟨 | Emir Sahiti · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hamburger SV |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Philipp Strompf · Hamburger SV |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tom Gaal · Ulm |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | William Mikelbrencis · Hamburger SV |
| 86' | ⚽ | Daniel Elfadli · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Ulm |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days |
| 190.00 |
| 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1580.11 | 1426.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.04 | -8.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.40 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 57.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.31 | 7.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |