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Preußen Münster 2–0 Hertha

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win40%2.43
Preußen Münster win35%2.74
Draw25%3.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha +054%1.83
Preußen Münster +046%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over62%1.56
Under38%2.57

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
45'🟨Daniel Kyerewaa · Preußen Münster
54'🟨Niko Koulis · Preußen Münster
69'🟨Ibrahim Maza · Hertha
70'⚽Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
74'🟨Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster
77'🟥Linus Gechter · Hertha
80'🟨Etienne Amenyido · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
3On target1
2Corners7
16Fouls13
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterHertha
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.560.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreußen-Stadion
coach days
38.00
97.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.291.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1459.791458.52
elo momentum (last 5)10.7131.59
eye test v10.44-0.24
eye trend v10.30-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)48.3062.90
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.800.65
league points36.0043.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank4.008.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2081.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2046.60
rest days7.005.21
scorer concentration0.280.25
season ppg1.061.26
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)14.2012.00
skill v10.350.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age—25.08
state index0.000.20
sterile dominance v1-0.14-0.15
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.290.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80