← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Hannover win | 36% | 2.66 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hannover +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ (og) | Tom Gaal · Hannover |
| 45' | 🟨 | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 51' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 52' | 🟨 | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| 67' | ⚽ | Josh Knight · Hannover |
| 68' | 🟥 | Boris Tomiak · Hannover |
| 71' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Hannover |
| 75' | 🟨 | Josh Knight · Hannover |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oliver Batista Meier · Ulm |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| 63.00 |
| 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1437.09 | 1461.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.20 | -45.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.53 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |