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Magdeburg 0–5 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Prigan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg win65%1.46
Draw20%4.90
Preußen Münster win15%6.79

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster −1.2551%1.88
Magdeburg −1.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.44
Under34%2.89

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
12'⚽Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
15'⚽Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster
43'⚽ (pen)Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster
49'🟨Jean Hugonet · Magdeburg
52'⚽Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster
54'⚽Daniel Kyerewaa · Preußen Münster
75'🟨Barış Atik · Magdeburg
89'🟨Dominik Schad · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Bryan Silva Teixeira · Magdeburg
90'🟨Patric Pfeiffer · Magdeburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
10Shots14
3On target8
7Corners3
17Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMagdeburgPreußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAvnet Arena
coach days
121.00
31.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.053.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1513.681432.06
elo momentum (last 5)9.42-21.56
eye test v10.29-0.10
eye trend v10.030.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.6051.30
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v10.760.76
league points54.0033.00
league rank3.0018.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)58.4054.00
rest days7.006.23
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.641.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0014.20
skill v11.080.65
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index0.33-0.62
sterile dominance v10.880.28
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.20