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Preußen Münster 1–1 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: L. Benen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win42%2.31
Preußen Münster win32%2.98
Draw25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster +0.2552%1.88
Darmstadt +0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Lukas Frenkert · Preußen Münster
7'🟨Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt
45'🟨Sergio López · Darmstadt
45'⚽Luca Marseiler · Darmstadt
49'🟨Marc Lorenz · Preußen Münster
62'⚽Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster
69'🟨Andreas Müller · Darmstadt
90'🟨Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Preußen Münster
90'🟨Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots11
3On target4
2Corners5
13Fouls6
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.71
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreußen-Stadion
coach days
25.00
237.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.361.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.55
elo1433.441445.38
elo momentum (last 5)7.2810.31
eye test v1-0.390.59
eye trend v10.35-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)56.3062.80
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.750.69
league points32.0038.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)50.6046.60
rest days5.985.98
scorer concentration0.260.30
season ppg1.001.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.801.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.20
skill v10.330.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
state index-0.44-0.19
sterile dominance v10.18-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.260.31
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20