← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Ulm win | 29% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hertha +0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Aaron Keller · Ulm |
| 21' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha |
| 46' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 50' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dennis Dressel · Ulm |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luka Hyrylainen · Ulm |
| 84' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom Gaal · Ulm |
| 86' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| 50.00 |
| 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1437.73 | 1440.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.76 | 39.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.08 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |