← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Ulm win | 29% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Ulm +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Felix Higl · Ulm |
| 17' | ⚽ | Semir Telalović · Ulm |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dennis Dressel · Ulm |
| 77' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Magdeburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Brandt · Ulm |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor Krempicki · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| 42.00 |
| 101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1426.83 | 1518.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.52 | 6.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |