← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 36% | 38% | 2.69 | fair |
| Greuther Furth win | 36% | 37% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Greuther Furth +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 11' | ⚽ | Roberto Massimo · Greuther Furth |
| 18' | 🟨 | Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth |
| 26' | ⚽ | Jomaine Consbruch · Greuther Furth |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nahuel Noll · Greuther Furth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · Greuther Furth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Amin Younes · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Moussa Sylla · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1442.36 | 1500.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.67 | 0.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 28.18 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |