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Preußen Münster 0–1 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Erbst

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg win37%2.63
Preußen Münster win35%2.82
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg +052%1.88
Preußen Münster +048%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.97
Under49%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Rico Preißinger · Preußen Münster
29'🟨Jano ter Horst · Preußen Münster
34'🟨Florian Pick · Preußen Münster
59'🟨Jorrit Hendrix · Preußen Münster
65'🟨Tim Janisch · Nurnberg
82'⚽Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots14
5On target6
5Corners3
19Fouls12
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPreußen MünsterNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.810.64
cards avg (last 5)3.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePreußen-Stadion
coach days
1894.00
281.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.44
elo1438.051431.69
elo momentum (last 5)-26.1728.95
eye test v1-0.370.03
eye trend v10.05-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)48.9062.90
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.740.61
league points24.0035.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6082.00
possession avg (last 5)42.0048.80
rest days8.798.02
scorer concentration0.270.30
season ppg0.961.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.80
skill v1-1.230.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index-0.48-0.12
sterile dominance v1-1.060.32
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80