← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 48% | 2.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
| Ulm win | 26% | 3.84 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ulm −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Berkay Yılmaz · Nurnberg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luka Hyrylainen · Ulm |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm |
| 59' | 🟥 | Maurice Krattenmacher · Ulm |
| 85' | ⚽ | Caspar Jander · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefanos Tzimas · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Gaal · Ulm |
| 90' | ⚽ | Janis Antiste · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Ulm |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 260.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1427.54 | 1444.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.88 | -21.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |