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SC Paderborn 07 2–0 Preußen Münster

← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win58%1.64
Draw24%4.00
Preußen Münster win18%5.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preußen Münster −154%1.80
SC Paderborn 07 −146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.82
Under46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

63'🟨Mikkel Kirkeskov · Preußen Münster
73'🟨Joshua Mees · Preußen Münster
75'🟨Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07
81'⚽Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07
84'⚽Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07
88'🟨Torge Paetow · Preußen Münster

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots10
5On target2
9Corners1
11Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Preußen Münster
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.590.75
cards avg (last 5)3.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHome Deluxe Arena
3.40
coach days1324.001871.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.802.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.09
dominance (last 5)0.610.41
elo1521.811448.09
elo momentum (last 5)-14.13-7.80
eye test v10.77-0.53
eye trend v1-0.180.48
first sub minute (last 10)51.9053.30
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.670.74
league points37.0021.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank11.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)52.0040.20
rest days6.237.00
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.680.95
shot diff avg (last 5)6.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.8011.00
skill v10.29-1.16
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.20
state index-0.10-0.48
sterile dominance v1-0.19-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.35
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20