← 2. Bundesliga 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bauer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 43% | 2.21 |
| Ulm win | 30% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Ulm +0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟥 | Dennis Dressel · Ulm |
| 52' | 🟨 | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lennart Stoll · Ulm |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 81' | ⚽ | Marvin Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tjark Lasse Scheller · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ulm | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Donaustadion |
| coach days | 38.00 | 1318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1459.73 | 1506.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.74 | -30.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |